FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.68 – 329.43

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

256 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.6 ±9.8

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 65.81Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 70.86Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 226.01Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±8.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 134.24Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 46.8Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 148.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4541, 339, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4541, 339, 2106

Auto

71.5 20%

Teleop

184.8 53%

Endgame

92.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 2199, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 686, 2199, 619

Auto

59.7 18%

Teleop

177.2 55%

Endgame

87.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score362.7pts

Blue projected score329.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 279–413
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 277.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.6Season APEX654.4

71.5Auto59.7

184.8Teleop177.2

92.6Endgame87.8

112Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	61
teleop	168	225
endgame	23	90
foul	0	5
total	256	381

Result

Final score

256 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.