FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.97 – 246.91

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.3 ±8.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 188.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 88.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 144.96Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.9 ±9.8

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 104.28Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 60.38Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 82.25Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 5549, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

422 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1731, 5549, 540

Auto

92.1 22%

Teleop

253.9 60%

Endgame

75.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 5724, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 5724, 888

Auto

41.9 18%

Teleop

149.3 64%

Endgame

43.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422pts

Blue projected score246.9pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.1
Score range: 197–472
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 276.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.3Season APEX406.9

92.1Auto41.9

253.9Teleop149.3

75.9Endgame43.9

133Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	58
teleop	229	144
endgame	83	87
foul	0	0
total	372	289

Result

Final score

372 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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