FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.62 – 129.78

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.9 ±9.8

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 103.98Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 57.59Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 159.05Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.5 ±10.4

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 35.08Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 74.66Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.04Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 2537, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 2537, 346

Auto

60.1 19%

Teleop

187.3 59%

Endgame

70.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8590, 1262, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8590, 1262, 2421

Auto

39.5 33%

Teleop

47.5 39%

Endgame

33.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score320.6pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 190.8
Score range: 80–371
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 276.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.9Season APEX274.5

60.1Auto39.5

187.3Teleop47.5

70.1Endgame33.6

75Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	9
teleop	231	108
endgame	58	51
foul	0	0
total	348	168

Result

Final score

348 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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