FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.58 – 494.14

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.4 ±10.4

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 59.49Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 46.52Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 81.57Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 704.5 ±9.3

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 158.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 111.72Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 223.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 3361, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3258, 3361, 620

Auto

33.5 18%

Teleop

128.2 69%

Endgame

24.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 122, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

494.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5338, 122, 449

Auto

97.8 20%

Teleop

276.9 57%

Endgame

112.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 3.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score187.6pts

Blue projected score494.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -306.6
Score range: 138–544
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 275.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.4Season APEX704.5

33.5Auto97.8

128.2Teleop276.9

24.9Endgame112.8

85Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	78
teleop	29	313
endgame	33	162
foul	15	5
total	98	558

Result

Final score

98 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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