FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.73 – 222.85

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

502 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670.5 ±9.3

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 174.27Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 87.14Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 163.32Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±9.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 128.07Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 30.64Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 64.14Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 1629, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4099, 1629, 11415

Auto

78.5 19%

Teleop

233.2 56%

Endgame

105.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 2068, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8592, 2068, 11318

Auto

35.3 17%

Teleop

122.5 58%

Endgame

53.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score424.7pts

Blue projected score222.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.9
Score range: 173–475
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 275.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670.5Season APEX413.5

78.5Auto35.3

233.2Teleop122.5

105.4Endgame53.5

117Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	20
teleop	306	83
endgame	107	53
foul	5	0
total	502	156

Result

Final score

502 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.