FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.18 – 237.14

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±9.3

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 74.46Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 147.71Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 52.01Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±9.8

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 192.84Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 53.21Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX -8.91Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 614, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 339, 614, 2199

Auto

37.4 14%

Teleop

146.4 54%

Endgame

87.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1908, 4472, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1908, 4472, 1719

Auto

56.7 25%

Teleop

129.6 57%

Endgame

41.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score274.2pts

Blue projected score237.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37
Score range: 187–324
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 276.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.7Season APEX427.7

37.4Auto56.7

146.4Teleop129.6

87.8Endgame41.5

123Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	67
teleop	97	193
endgame	61	85
foul	15	0
total	255	345

Result

Final score

255 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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