FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.26 – 316.24

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 115 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.3 ±9.8

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 99.8Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 127.86Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 41.6Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.4 ±9.9

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 212.93Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 4.52Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 98.79Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2377, 1727, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2377, 1727, 11425

Auto

43.4 16%

Teleop

166.2 62%

Endgame

60.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 1111, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2106, 1111, 422

Auto

35.5 11%

Teleop

216.5 67%

Endgame

69.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.3pts

Blue projected score316.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47
Score range: 219–366
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 276.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.3Season APEX620.4

43.4Auto35.5

166.2Teleop216.5

60.3Endgame69.7

113Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	51
teleop	88	274
endgame	33	116
foul	20	0
total	164	441

Result

Final score

164 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 115 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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