FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.25 – 233.96

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±9.8

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 76.89Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 38.7Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 65.66Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.7 ±9.3

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 75.58Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 134.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 23.84Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1389, 8590, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1389, 8590, 401

Auto

39.2 25%

Teleop

94.3 60%

Endgame

24.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 619, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

234 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5549, 619, 10679

Auto

35.5 16%

Teleop

123.5 54%

Endgame

67.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score181.3pts

Blue projected score234pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.7
Score range: 131–284
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 276.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397Season APEX542.7

39.2Auto35.5

94.3Teleop123.5

24.1Endgame67.8

157Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	57
teleop	123	232
endgame	34	83
foul	0	0
total	200	372

Result

Final score

200 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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