FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.56 – 282.44

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.6 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 85.73Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 120.17Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX -1.34Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.4 ±9.8

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 51.72Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 153.08Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 77.64Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 686, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9072, 686, 5587

Auto

58.1 29%

Teleop

136.5 67%

Endgame

8.3 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3361, 540, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3361, 540, 1262

Auto

55.1 20%

Teleop

168.3 60%

Endgame

56.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score282.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.9
Score range: 155–332
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 276.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.6Season APEX380.4

58.1Auto55.1

136.5Teleop168.3

8.3Endgame56

106Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	35
teleop	147	162
endgame	112	68
foul	0	0
total	286	265

Result

Final score

286 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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