FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.25 – 203.24

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 106 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±9.8

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 18.26Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 143.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 176.93Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.9 ±10.4

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 99.86Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 37.27Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 66.11Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 11415, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2068, 11415, 1731

Auto

67.6 20%

Teleop

195.9 58%

Endgame

73.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 2421, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 620, 2421, 2890

Auto

46.6 23%

Teleop

94.5 46%

Endgame

63.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.3pts

Blue projected score203.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135
Score range: 153–388
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 275.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.1Season APEX276.9

67.6Auto46.6

195.9Teleop94.5

73.3Endgame63.4

142Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	34
teleop	287	18
endgame	88	53
foul	0	0
total	452	105

Result

Final score

452 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 106 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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