FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.93 – 299.57

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358 ±10.4

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 72.77Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 117.54Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 65.62Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±9.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 101.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 110.97Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 87.46Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 122, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3258, 122, 2537

Auto

46.2 18%

Teleop

162.0 62%

Endgame

53.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 836, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8592, 836, 3136

Auto

51.6 17%

Teleop

177.6 60%

Endgame

66.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.9pts

Blue projected score299.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 207–349
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 274.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358Season APEX532.1

46.2Auto51.6

162Teleop177.6

53.5Endgame66.3

64Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	59
teleop	71	292
endgame	83	63
foul	5	0
total	206	414

Result

Final score

206 – 414

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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