FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.46 – 372

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

331 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.3 ±9.8

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 53.62Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 150.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 82Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 623.3 ±9.3

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 71.35Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 229.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 70.91Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 5338, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3748, 5338, 888

Auto

36.7 13%

Teleop

176.3 62%

Endgame

69.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 449, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

372 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1629, 449, 4541

Auto

100.7 28%

Teleop

203.1 56%

Endgame

57.0 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score286.5pts

Blue projected score372pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.5
Score range: 237–421
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 734 vs event baseline 272.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.3Season APEX623.3

36.7Auto100.7

176.3Teleop203.1

69.4Endgame57

156Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	60
teleop	191	260
endgame	42	63
foul	0	20
total	331	403

Result

Final score

331 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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