Qualification · Qualification 54
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
131.32 – 238.7
21%79%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
62 – 237
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±11
Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 19.91Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 52.46Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 58.95Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 97.5Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 56.78Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 84.42Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1111, 11425, 8590
43
/ 100 compatProjected
131.3 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1111, 11425, 8590
Auto
39.9 32%
Teleop
75.8 62%
Endgame
7.2 6%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3939, 2199, 1389
58
/ 100 compatProjected
238.7 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3939, 2199, 1389
Auto
19.5 9%
Teleop
146.7 64%
Endgame
62.0 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score131.3pts
Blue projected score238.7pts
Red win probability21%
Event bonus sample246alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 16%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -107.4
- Score range
- 81–289
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
220.6Season APEX425.4
39.9Auto19.5
75.8Teleop146.7
7.2Endgame62
167Consistency131
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 53 |
| teleop | 30 | 107 |
| endgame | 17 | 77 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 62 | 237 |
Result
Final score
62 – 237
Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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