FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.84 – 352.84

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.1 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 145.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 39.32Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 100.11Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.3 ±9.3

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 80.73Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 193.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 78.67Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 5804, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 540, 5804, 686

Auto

54.5 19%

Teleop

172.5 60%

Endgame

58.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 1908, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5549, 1908, 339

Auto

48.4 14%

Teleop

214.8 63%

Endgame

79.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.8pts

Blue projected score352.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68
Score range: 236–402
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 721 vs event baseline 273.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.1Season APEX570.3

54.5Auto48.4

172.5Teleop214.8

58.7Endgame79.9

144Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	52
teleop	181	140
endgame	108	144
foul	0	20
total	365	356

Result

Final score

365 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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