FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.52 – 409.05

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 140.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±9.8

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 165.36Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 65.87Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 12.29Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 790.7 ±8.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 95.64Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 187.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 125.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 5724, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 5724, 1719

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

149.4 62%

Endgame

50.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 2106, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 2106, 346

Auto

57.1 14%

Teleop

255.0 62%

Endgame

100.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score243.5pts

Blue projected score409.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.5
Score range: 195–458
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 751 vs event baseline 271.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX790.7

42.5Auto57.1

149.4Teleop255

50.3Endgame100

157Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	72
teleop	95	413
endgame	15	109
foul	0	5
total	152	599

Result

Final score

152 – 599

Prediction correct · off by 140.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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