FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.06 – 124.58

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401 ±9.8

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 55.24Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 98.6Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 68.22Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±10.4

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 0.57Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 73.7Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 50.31Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 9072, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3361, 9072, 2421

Auto

70.1 33%

Teleop

102.1 48%

Endgame

38.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 2377, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5587, 2377, 10004

Auto

28.1 21%

Teleop

73.1 55%

Endgame

32.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score222.1pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.5
Score range: 76–271
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 273.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401Season APEX283.5

70.1Auto28.1

102.1Teleop73.1

38.8Endgame32.3

93Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	25
teleop	67	118
endgame	19	43
foul	15	5
total	160	191

Result

Final score

160 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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