FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.89 – 215.37

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 81.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.5 ±9.8

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 78.44Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 96.43Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 81.02Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.2 ±9.8

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 122.77Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 60.25Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 32.35Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3258, 3136, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3258, 3136, 401

Auto

54.9 22%

Teleop

156.7 63%

Endgame

37.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 5243, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 5243, 2068

Auto

48.5 24%

Teleop

101.8 50%

Endgame

54.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.9pts

Blue projected score215.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.5
Score range: 165–306
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 275.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.5Season APEX421.2

54.9Auto48.5

156.7Teleop101.8

37Endgame54.8

89Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	28
teleop	81	63
endgame	22	42
foul	5	0
total	176	133

Result

Final score

176 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 81.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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