FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.94 – 380.84

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 752.3 ±8.7

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 102.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 53.12Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 227.21Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.1 ±9.8

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 77.3Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 190.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 113.08Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 11318, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 836, 11318, 449

Auto

60.4 16%

Teleop

246.3 64%

Endgame

77.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4472, 1731, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4472, 1731, 888

Auto

75.2 19%

Teleop

248.0 64%

Endgame

63.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score382.9pts

Blue projected score380.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 332–432
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 274.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

752.3Season APEX499.1

60.4Auto75.2

246.3Teleop248

77Endgame63.8

91Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	84
teleop	240	117
endgame	65	16
foul	0	15
total	417	232

Result

Final score

417 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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