FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.37 – 322.81

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

383 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.5 ±9.8

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 24.49Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 41.78Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 134.1Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.9 ±10.4

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 142.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 100.68Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 79.75Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2537, 4541, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2537, 4541, 5338

Auto

58.0 32%

Teleop

66.8 37%

Endgame

57.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 1086, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11415, 1086, 10224

Auto

36.1 11%

Teleop

168.1 52%

Endgame

120.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score200.4pts

Blue projected score322.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.4
Score range: 151–372
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 272.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.5Season APEX452.9

58Auto36.1

66.8Teleop168.1

57.8Endgame120.5

126Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	55
teleop	222	192
endgame	92	146
foul	0	0
total	383	393

Result

Final score

383 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 126.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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