FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.25 – 206.56

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±10.4

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 39.3Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 96.17Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 99.78Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±9.8

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 85.72Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 4.8Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 116.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 8592, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3748, 8592, 620

Auto

19.8 8%

Teleop

159.1 67%

Endgame

58.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 9033, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1262, 9033, 619

Auto

22.7 11%

Teleop

134.0 64%

Endgame

52.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score235.3pts

Blue projected score206.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.7
Score range: 158–284
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 272.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.3Season APEX404

19.8Auto22.7

159.1Teleop134

58.7Endgame52.5

171Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	49
teleop	191	169
endgame	93	66
foul	0	0
total	305	284

Result

Final score

305 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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