FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.52 – 332.27

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.6 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 72.14Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 33.86Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 24.52Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.7 ±9.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 108.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 66.59Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 157.24Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 1895, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1629, 1895, 10679

Auto

18.9 14%

Teleop

63.3 48%

Endgame

49.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 2890, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 122, 2890, 4099

Auto

92.2 29%

Teleop

157.6 49%

Endgame

71.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score332.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -201.7
Score range: 82–381
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 271.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.6Season APEX515.7

18.9Auto92.2

63.3Teleop157.6

49.1Endgame71.7

101Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	90
teleop	92	223
endgame	39	85
foul	5	0
total	179	398

Result

Final score

179 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree