FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.37 – 200.84

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.9 ±9.8

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 47.6Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 105.39Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 26.38Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.2 ±9.8

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 51.86Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX -9.52Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 158.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 346, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 339, 346, 10004

Auto

21.1 12%

Teleop

111.6 62%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8590, 5587, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8590, 5587, 2106

Auto

25.7 13%

Teleop

125.2 65%

Endgame

41.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score200.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.5
Score range: 130–250
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 270.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.9Season APEX474.2

21.1Auto25.7

111.6Teleop125.2

48.4Endgame41.2

140Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	64
teleop	183	171
endgame	88	51
foul	0	0
total	324	286

Result

Final score

324 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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