FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.17 – 287.51

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 477

Prediction correct · off by 143.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±9.8

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 58.17Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 49.11Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 29.89Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.3 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 73.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 157.83Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 55.75Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5549, 5724, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5549, 5724, 11425

Auto

36.1 28%

Teleop

80.7 62%

Endgame

13.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 1908, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9072, 1908, 3258

Auto

54.5 20%

Teleop

166.3 60%

Endgame

56.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score287.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.3
Score range: 89–336
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 712 vs event baseline 269.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX560.3

36.1Auto54.5

80.7Teleop166.3

13.6Endgame56

149Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	92
teleop	139	324
endgame	73	61
foul	0	0
total	235	477

Result

Final score

235 – 477

Prediction correct · off by 143.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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