FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.67 – 264.53

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 184.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±9.8

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 127.86Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 113Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 105.81Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.9 ±9.3

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 42.63Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 66.66Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 155.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3939, 401, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3939, 401, 4472

Auto

67.0 20%

Teleop

211.3 63%

Endgame

55.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2421, 686, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2421, 686, 1731

Auto

68.1 26%

Teleop

160.1 61%

Endgame

36.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.7pts

Blue projected score264.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 217–395
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 268.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.3Season APEX567.9

67Auto68.1

211.3Teleop160.1

55.1Endgame36.2

183Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	117
teleop	99	239
endgame	28	94
foul	5	0
total	164	450

Result

Final score

164 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 184.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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