FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

323.66 – 390.69

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.5 ±9.8

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 125.34Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 96.23Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 102.09Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.1 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 144.76Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 84Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 161.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 836, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 888, 836, 1086

Auto

42.5 13%

Teleop

207.0 64%

Endgame

72.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2199, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 2199, 11415

Auto

59.6 15%

Teleop

240.6 61%

Endgame

91.5 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score323.7pts

Blue projected score390.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67
Score range: 276–439
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 266.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.5Season APEX621.1

42.5Auto59.6

207Teleop240.6

72.5Endgame91.5

93Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	29
teleop	207	173
endgame	84	124
foul	0	0
total	354	326

Result

Final score

354 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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