FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.61 – 262.29

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±9.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 102.79Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 88.42Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 49.4Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.7 ±10.4

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 111.52Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 66.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 83.79Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8592, 1727, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8592, 1727, 5804

Auto

8.8 4%

Teleop

122.6 52%

Endgame

104.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 10224, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 620, 10224, 1389

Auto

16.9 6%

Teleop

177.7 68%

Endgame

65.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score240.6pts

Blue projected score262.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.7
Score range: 193–310
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 266.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX340.7

8.8Auto16.9

122.6Teleop177.7

104.9Endgame65.8

106Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	26
teleop	170	147
endgame	65	84
foul	5	0
total	276	257

Result

Final score

276 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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