FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.29 – 208.62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 145.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.1 ±9.3

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 51.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 41.23Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 92.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.7 ±11

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 58.24Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 97.14Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 53.24Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 2890, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1629, 2890, 619

Auto

47.9 26%

Teleop

92.7 50%

Endgame

43.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2537, 5243, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2537, 5243, 1111

Auto

37.6 19%

Teleop

110.1 55%

Endgame

54.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score185.3pts

Blue projected score208.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 137–257
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 267.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.1Season APEX303.7

47.9Auto37.6

92.7Teleop110.1

43.3Endgame54

138Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	40
teleop	190	20
endgame	95	23
foul	0	0
total	350	83

Result

Final score

350 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 145.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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