FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.76 – 154.09

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.6 ±8.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 146.86Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 167.71Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 90.19Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.5 ±10.4

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 51.45Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 58.28Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 44.36Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 4099, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1731, 4099, 2199

Auto

100.3 25%

Teleop

212.3 53%

Endgame

89.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 2537, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5804, 2537, 3361

Auto

27.3 18%

Teleop

80.7 53%

Endgame

43.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score404.8pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 250.7
Score range: 100–459
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 297.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.6Season APEX285.5

100.3Auto27.3

212.3Teleop80.7

89.3Endgame43.1

123Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	13
teleop	259	86
endgame	70	31
foul	5	0
total	431	130

Result

Final score

431 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.