FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.67 – 42.33

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.9 ±9.8

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 134.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 33.45Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 119.93Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.7 ±10.4

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -22.6Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 34.76Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 30.17Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 2068, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 540, 2068, 122

Auto

48.8 17%

Teleop

165.9 59%

Endgame

65.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 4541, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9033, 4541, 3748

Auto

38.8 93%

Teleop

36.1 86%

Endgame

-33.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287.7pts

Blue projected score42.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.3
Score range: -6–336
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.9Season APEX308.7

48.8Auto38.8

165.9Teleop36.1

65.2Endgame-33.1

146Consistency198

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	35
teleop	135	61
endgame	61	43
foul	5	5
total	275	144

Result

Final score

275 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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