FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

326.41 – 372.39

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.8 ±9.8

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 172.05Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 89.73Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 64.63Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.8 ±9.3

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 62.76Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 138.85Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 170.78Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 3136, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 3136, 1895

Auto

65.3 20%

Teleop

176.1 54%

Endgame

82.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3361, 5338, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3361, 5338, 4099

Auto

88.6 25%

Teleop

193.2 55%

Endgame

71.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score326.4pts

Blue projected score372.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 277–421
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.8Season APEX574.8

65.3Auto88.6

176.1Teleop193.2

82.4Endgame71.1

152Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	87
teleop	156	156
endgame	88	93
foul	0	15
total	296	351

Result

Final score

296 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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