FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.59 – 226.75

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 109.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.3 ±10.4

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 46.17Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 129.84Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 79.58Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.2 ±9.3

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 122.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 81.49Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 22.66Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11425, 1086, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 3258

Auto

25.6 10%

Teleop

140.9 53%

Endgame

99.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 401, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1731, 401, 339

Auto

69.9 33%

Teleop

131.0 61%

Endgame

13.2 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.6pts

Blue projected score226.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.8
Score range: 178–305
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 270.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.3Season APEX525.2

25.6Auto69.9

140.9Teleop131

99.3Endgame13.2

128Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	56
teleop	70	210
endgame	34	89
foul	0	0
total	164	355

Result

Final score

164 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 109.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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