FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.05 – 259.31

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±9.8

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 130.8Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 53.59Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 24.66Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.8 ±9.8

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 37.05Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 98.1Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 124.16Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 686, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 620, 686, 5724

Auto

18.5 9%

Teleop

156.6 77%

Endgame

27.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10224, 888, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10224, 888, 422

Auto

44.2 17%

Teleop

146.8 57%

Endgame

68.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score209.1pts

Blue projected score259.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.3
Score range: 161–307
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.4Season APEX517.8

18.5Auto44.2

156.6Teleop146.8

27.7Endgame68.7

149Consistency198

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	47
teleop	169	254
endgame	35	86
foul	0	0
total	240	387

Result

Final score

240 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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