FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.94 – 93.62

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±9.3

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 103.09Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 148.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 6.33Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.4 ±9.8

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 44.58Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 33.99Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 15.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 1908, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2199, 1908, 5587

Auto

19.7 8%

Teleop

151.2 61%

Endgame

77.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8590, 2537, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8590, 2537, 1629

Auto

28.3 35%

Teleop

62.5 78%

Endgame

-10.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score257.9pts

Blue projected score93.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.3
Score range: 45–307
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524Season APEX416.4

19.7Auto28.3

151.2Teleop62.5

77.1Endgame-10.6

141Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	38
teleop	131	108
endgame	46	57
foul	5	15
total	223	218

Result

Final score

223 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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