FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.99 – 221.63

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.4 ±10.4

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 101.09Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 11.13Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 23.77Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±10.4

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 87.4Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 75.29Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 58.94Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4472, 2068, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4472, 2068, 5804

Auto

24.8 19%

Teleop

64.2 50%

Endgame

38.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 1262, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2377, 1262, 122

Auto

34.9 15%

Teleop

148.0 65%

Endgame

46.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score221.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.6
Score range: 87–271
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.4Season APEX370.8

24.8Auto34.9

64.2Teleop148

38.7Endgame46.2

145Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	54
teleop	115	191
endgame	63	68
foul	5	5
total	221	318

Result

Final score

221 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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