FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.22 – 250.61

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.7 ±8.7

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 61.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 140.24Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 122.9Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.1 ±9.3

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 117.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 35.15Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 98.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 4099, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 619, 4099, 836

Auto

62.0 20%

Teleop

167.3 55%

Endgame

73.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 1719, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5338, 1719, 540

Auto

64.1 25%

Teleop

144.2 57%

Endgame

44.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.2pts

Blue projected score250.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 203–372
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 723 vs event baseline 266.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.7Season APEX536.1

62Auto64.1

167.3Teleop144.2

73.5Endgame44.4

59Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	72
teleop	213	167
endgame	92	96
foul	0	5
total	383	340

Result

Final score

383 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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