FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.99 – 229.53

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 96.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.6 ±9.8

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 65.73Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 33.88Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 207.38Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.5

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 61.76Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 100.97Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 66.8Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 10679, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

307 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3136, 10679, 449

Auto

93.5 30%

Teleop

202.1 65%

Endgame

14.6 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 1727, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1111, 1727, 1895

Auto

31.0 14%

Teleop

111.8 49%

Endgame

83.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score307pts

Blue projected score229.5pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 182–355
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 265.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.6Season APEX368.8

93.5Auto31

202.1Teleop111.8

14.6Endgame83.8

126Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	26
teleop	265	87
endgame	98	54
foul	5	0
total	438	167

Result

Final score

438 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 96.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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