FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.03 – 317.09

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.3 ±10.5

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 101.2Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 28Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 116.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.1 ±9.8

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 151.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 136.6Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 28.78Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10224, 1111, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10224, 1111, 5549

Auto

40.6 17%

Teleop

120.6 51%

Endgame

77.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 1086, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 346, 1086, 2068

Auto

53.5 17%

Teleop

180.4 58%

Endgame

79.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246pts

Blue projected score317.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.1
Score range: 192–371
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 297.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.3Season APEX515.1

40.6Auto53.5

120.6Teleop180.4

77Endgame79.5

102Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	35
teleop	97	146
endgame	34	71
foul	0	0
total	162	252

Result

Final score

162 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.