FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.89 – 100.96

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 118.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.7 ±9.8

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 153.96Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 86.76Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 26.17Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±9.8

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 76.83Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 61.41Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -37.28Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1908, 888, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1908, 888, 2537

Auto

26.3 10%

Teleop

162.3 62%

Endgame

74.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 401, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 620, 401, 9033

Auto

55.1 63%

Teleop

62.7 72%

Endgame

-30.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266.9pts

Blue projected score101pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.9
Score range: 54–314
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 262.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.7Season APEX393

26.3Auto55.1

162.3Teleop62.7

74.9Endgame-30.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	39
teleop	203	188
endgame	67	46
foul	15	0
total	332	273

Result

Final score

332 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 118.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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