FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.44 – 99.96

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 142.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±10.4

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 32.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 55.45Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 66.86Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.4 ±9.8

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX -16.26Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 25.93Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 90.29Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10224, 2377, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10224, 2377, 4472

Auto

37.4 23%

Teleop

95.2 60%

Endgame

26.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 11425, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

100 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1629, 11425, 3939

Auto

26.3 26%

Teleop

49.4 48%

Endgame

27.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score100pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.5
Score range: 53–201
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 261.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX396.4

37.4Auto26.3

95.2Teleop49.4

26.7Endgame27.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	65
teleop	159	160
endgame	77	38
foul	0	0
total	277	263

Result

Final score

277 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 142.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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