FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.06 – 129.99

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 111 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641 ±9.3

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 86.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 65.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 58.2Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.8 ±10.4

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 17.51Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 60.17Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 52.31Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 5338, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 836, 5338, 1262

Auto

36.5 17%

Teleop

134.8 64%

Endgame

39.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2068, 8590, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2068, 8590, 5724

Auto

12.0 10%

Teleop

79.6 66%

Endgame

28.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score130pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.1
Score range: 83–257
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 261.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641Season APEX221.8

36.5Auto12

134.8Teleop79.6

39.5Endgame28.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	267	55
endgame	100	7
foul	0	30
total	409	107

Result

Final score

409 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 111 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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