FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.61 – 301.66

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

338 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 219.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±9.8

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX -9.75Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 89.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 83.25Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631 ±9.3

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 107.25Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 136.21Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 58.2Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5587, 11415, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5587, 11415, 1727

Auto

17.4 11%

Teleop

92.2 56%

Endgame

54.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 449, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4099, 449, 3258

Auto

88.7 31%

Teleop

169.8 60%

Endgame

25.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score162.6pts

Blue projected score301.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139
Score range: 117–348
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 904 vs event baseline 253.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.1Season APEX631

17.4Auto88.7

92.2Teleop169.8

54.9Endgame25.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	91
teleop	188	345
endgame	119	130
foul	0	0
total	338	566

Result

Final score

338 – 566

Prediction correct · off by 219.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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