FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.26 – 197.45

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 101.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.8 ±9.3

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 41.31Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 75.73Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 122.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.2 ±9.3

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 38.1Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 50.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 108.74Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4541, 422, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4541, 422, 1731

Auto

64.5 28%

Teleop

119.8 52%

Endgame

45.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1895, 346, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1895, 346, 9072

Auto

35.9 18%

Teleop

131.1 65%

Endgame

34.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score239.3pts

Blue projected score197.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.8
Score range: 152–284
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 250.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.8Season APEX637.2

64.5Auto35.9

119.8Teleop131.1

45.8Endgame34

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	57
teleop	215	126
endgame	29	87
foul	0	15
total	355	285

Result

Final score

355 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 101.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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