FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.86 – 203.24

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±10.4

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 69.18Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 93.35Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 72.33Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±10.4

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 60.29Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 61.52Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 81.43Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5243, 1389, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5243, 1389, 3136

Auto

45.8 20%

Teleop

117.8 51%

Endgame

68.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 3748, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1719, 3748, 339

Auto

36.0 18%

Teleop

143.3 71%

Endgame

23.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score234.9pts

Blue projected score203.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 157–281
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 252.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.9Season APEX283.2

45.8Auto36

117.8Teleop143.3

68.5Endgame23.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	41
teleop	139	56
endgame	62	21
foul	20	0
total	283	118

Result

Final score

283 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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