FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

233.67 – 252.64

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.1 ±8.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 62.69Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 128.76Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 42.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.8 ±10.4

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 73.98Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 81.36Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 97.3Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 686, 614, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 686, 614, 5549

Auto

61.5 26%

Teleop

142.7 60%

Endgame

33.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10004, 10679, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10004, 10679, 8592

Auto

11.5 5%

Teleop

148.9 59%

Endgame

93.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score233.7pts

Blue projected score252.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19
Score range: 188–299
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 254.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.1Season APEX318.8

61.5Auto11.5

142.7Teleop148.9

33.7Endgame93.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	27
teleop	228	75
endgame	40	16
foul	5	0
total	334	118

Result

Final score

334 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 117.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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