FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.78 – 190.94

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±10.4

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 75.83Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.77Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 81.18Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±10.4

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 59.75Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 27.45Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 103.74Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 8590, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3748, 8590, 4472

Auto

29.6 16%

Teleop

111.0 60%

Endgame

44.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2890, 3258, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2890, 3258, 8592

Auto

32.9 17%

Teleop

103.8 53%

Endgame

58.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score190.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.2
Score range: 136–245
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 297.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.5Season APEX306.2

29.6Auto32.9

111Teleop103.8

44.1Endgame58.7

126Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	127	119
endgame	20	73
foul	5	0
total	189	212

Result

Final score

189 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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