FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.76 – 189.34

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.7 ±9.9

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 77.82Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 142.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 125.38Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379 ±9.8

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 55.17Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 105.09Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 29.08Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 540, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1111, 540, 2199

Auto

63.5 18%

Teleop

217.4 62%

Endgame

70.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 11318, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5804, 11318, 2890

Auto

5.8 3%

Teleop

93.7 51%

Endgame

84.6 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score345.8pts

Blue projected score189.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.4
Score range: 144–391
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 252.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.7Season APEX379

63.5Auto5.8

217.4Teleop93.7

70.9Endgame84.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	40
teleop	173	81
endgame	75	29
foul	0	0
total	288	150

Result

Final score

288 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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