FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.95 – 229.39

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.4 ±10.4

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 28.47Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 64.35Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 37.13Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557 ±9.3

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 124.9Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 52.4Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 52.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2537, 1262, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2537, 1262, 4472

Auto

26.2 18%

Teleop

103.3 73%

Endgame

12.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3939, 1727, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3939, 1727, 5338

Auto

71.2 31%

Teleop

119.8 52%

Endgame

38.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score130pts

Blue projected score229.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 85–274
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 249.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.4Season APEX557

26.2Auto71.2

103.3Teleop119.8

12.4Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	41
teleop	130	191
endgame	41	111
foul	0	15
total	216	358

Result

Final score

216 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 107.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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