FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.2 – 194.66

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.2 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 84.22Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 122.81Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 62.17Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.8 ±9.3

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 40.45Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 40.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 113.28Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 4099, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 401, 4099, 4541

Auto

70.4 26%

Teleop

170.7 63%

Endgame

28.1 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 1629, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9033, 1629, 836

Auto

56.5 29%

Teleop

109.6 56%

Endgame

28.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.2pts

Blue projected score194.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.5
Score range: 149–315
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 254.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.2Season APEX576.8

70.4Auto56.5

170.7Teleop109.6

28.1Endgame28.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	17
teleop	72	85
endgame	18	2
foul	50	0
total	256	104

Result

Final score

256 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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