FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.16 – 153.66

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±10.4

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 62.8Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 46.36Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.7 ±10.4

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 56.52Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 62.8Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 34.34Rank 52Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 339, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11415, 339, 8590

Auto

38.2 21%

Teleop

105.7 59%

Endgame

34.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5724, 2377, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5724, 2377, 1895

Auto

24.2 16%

Teleop

83.3 55%

Endgame

43.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score181.2pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 108–227
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 256.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349Season APEX243.7

38.2Auto24.2

105.7Teleop83.3

34.2Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	30
teleop	148	114
endgame	67	41
foul	15	0
total	264	185

Result

Final score

264 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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