FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.1 – 221.72

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376 ±10.4

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 70.29Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 59.1Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 49.71Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.8 ±9.8

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 59.1Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 41.76Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 120.86Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 10004, 3136

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 888, 10004, 3136

Auto

45.9 26%

Teleop

92.1 52%

Endgame

37.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5243, 11425, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5243, 11425, 614

Auto

40.7 19%

Teleop

127.1 58%

Endgame

51.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.1pts

Blue projected score221.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.6
Score range: 133–268
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 256.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376Season APEX358.8

45.9Auto40.7

92.1Teleop127.1

37.5Endgame51.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	67
teleop	138	127
endgame	48	79
foul	0	0
total	240	273

Result

Final score

240 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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